Is Another 2008 Coming? What the Fall 2026 Numbers Say About the Edmonds Market

📍 Edmonds, Shoreline, Mukilteo & South Snohomish County, WA|Market Update|🏠 October 2026

If you’ve noticed more For Sale signs around town lately, you’re not alone. One question keeps coming up in conversations with homeowners this fall: Is this 2008 all over again? Inventory has nearly doubled from a year ago, and buyers are taking longer to commit. When the market shifts, it’s natural to brace for the worst. The honest answer is more reassuring than the headlines suggest. Terry Vehrs has sold homes in Edmonds for more than 40 years, including through the 2008 downturn, and the September 2026 numbers tell a very different story. Here’s what changed, what didn’t, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling this fall.

What Changed: Buyers Have Choices Again

The biggest shift is supply. A year ago, buyers were competing over a thin selection of homes. Today they have nearly twice as many to choose from, and they’re taking their time deciding.

Pending sales tell the other half of the story. Contracts fell 35% from last September, which means buyers are still active but more deliberate.

These figures come from NWMLS residential data for the Edmonds-area ZIP codes 98020 and 98026, which include Woodway.

What Didn’t Change: Homes Are Still Selling

Here’s the part that rarely makes the headlines. Even with fewer buyers writing offers, homes are closing at nearly the same pace as last year.

• Closed sales are steady — 49 homes sold in September, compared with 51 a year ago.
• Prices are close to last year — the median sale price was $999,500, down about 5% from $1,050,000 last September.
• Homes are still moving — September sales averaged 33 days on market, slightly faster than 36 days a year ago.

That’s not a market in retreat. The pace has slowed and prices have softened slightly, but homes are still selling at close to last year’s levels.

The Luxury Market: More Options, Still Buying

Above $2 million, the picture is even more encouraging for sellers. There are 23 homes listed in that range, up from 13 last September, so high-end buyers have real choices. But they’re still buying.

Fifteen homes above $2 million sold from July through September, up from 12 in the same months last year. The median luxury sale price was higher than the year before in each of those three months. Competition among luxury sellers is up, but so is demand.

Why This Isn’t 2008

The 2008 downturn wasn’t caused by a slower pace of sales. It was driven by risky lending, a wave of foreclosures, and homeowners who had to sell with little or no equity. Distressed sales pushed prices down, which led to more distressed sales.

That pattern isn’t showing up in Edmonds. Sales are steady and prices are within about 5% of last year. The sellers Terry is working with are moving because their lives are changing, not because they’re being forced out. Many longtime Edmonds homeowners have built substantial equity, and a lot of them locked in low interest rates years ago.

What’s cooling the market is higher mortgage rates and the affordability pressure that comes with them, not a wave of people being forced to sell. A market with more inventory and more patient buyers is a normal part of the real estate cycle. It is not a crash.

What This Means in Terry’s Market Right Now

Q4 is leaning in favor of buyers. That doesn’t make it a bad time to sell. It makes it a time when strategy matters more than timing.

If You’re Buying

This fall may be the best opportunity buyers have had in years. More choice plus more time adds up to leverage.

• Take time to compare — tour several homes before deciding, without the pressure of bidding wars.
• Keep your protections — inspection and financing contingencies are back on the table.
• Negotiate with confidence — price, repairs, and closing costs are all open for discussion.
• Don’t wait too long on the right home — homes are still selling in about a month on average.

If You’re Selling

Buyers are comparing your home against nearly twice as many options as last year. The homes that sell are the ones that stand out from day one.

• Price it right from the start — overpricing and waiting for the market to catch up is the most expensive mistake in a shifting market.
• Invest in presentation — strong photos, video, and a well-prepared home matter more when buyers have choices.
• Plan the first two weeks — that’s when a listing gets the most attention, so launch with a clear strategy.

If You’re Selling a Luxury Home

With 23 homes listed above $2 million, competition is the story. Buyers at that level look closely at what sets one home apart from the next. Luxury homes that sold in September averaged 66 days on market, so strong marketing and a realistic price matter as much as the view.

Frequently Asked Questions

Source: NWMLS, Edmonds & Woodway (98020/98026) residential, September 2026 vs. September 2025.