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One of the biggest concerns buyers bring to Terry Vehrs right now is some version of the same question: “What if I buy and prices go down?” It’s a fair question — and with everything in the news lately, it makes sense that buyers are thinking carefully. Here’s what the data actually shows.
The Concern Is Understandable — But the Full Picture Tells a Different Story
Nobody wants to make one of the largest financial decisions of their life at the wrong time. And yes, there are a handful of markets around the country seeing modest price softening right now. But getting hung up on a few isolated examples means missing the much larger and more consistent pattern that has held true for nearly seven decades.
When you zoom out and look at how home prices have actually moved over time, the picture becomes a lot more reassuring.
What the Data Really Shows
The chart below uses S&P Case-Shiller and Bilello data to show annual changes in home prices going all the way back to 1956. Take a moment to look at it — the pattern is striking.
Home Prices Usually Rise Over Time
Annual Change in Home Prices (1956 – 2025)
| +1%1956 | +3%1957 | +1%1958 | 0%1959 | +1%1960 | +1%1961 | 0%1962 | +2%1963 | +1%1964 | +2%1965 | +1%1966 |
| +2%1967 | +4%1968 | +7%1969 | +8%1970 | +4%1971 | +3%1972 | +3%1973 | +10%1974 | +7%1975 | +8%1976 | +15%1977 |
| +16%1978 | +14%1979 | +7%1980 | +5%1981 | +1%1982 | +5%1983 | +5%1984 | +7%1985 | +10%1986 | +8%1987 | +7%1988 |
| +4%1989 | -1%1990 | 0%1991 | +1%1992 | +2%1993 | +3%1994 | +2%1995 | +2%1996 | +4%1997 | +6%1998 | +8%1999 |
| +9%2000 | +7%2001 | +10%2002 | +10%2003 | +14%2004 | +14%2005 | +2%2006 | -5%2007 | -12%2008 | -4%2009 | -4%2010 |
| -4%2011 | +6%2012 | +11%2013 | +5%2014 | +5%2015 | +5%2016 | +6%2017 | +5%2018 | +4%2019 | +10%2020 | +19%2021 |
| +6%2022 | +6%2023 | +4%2024 | +1%2025 | Sources: S&P Case-Shiller, Bilello | ||||||
The pattern is hard to argue with. Outside of the 2007–2011 housing crash — an event driven by fundamentally unsound lending practices that have since been corrected — home prices held steady or increased in virtually every year going back to 1956. That’s nearly seven decades of consistent appreciation interrupted by one significant but temporary downturn.
Why Prices Tend to Rise Over Time
The long-term upward trend isn’t a coincidence — there are real structural reasons behind it that apply directly to markets like Edmonds, Shoreline, and Mukilteo.
- People will always need a place to live. Demand for housing is one of the most durable forces in the economy. Life changes — marriages, career moves, growing households, downsizing — keep the market in motion regardless of the economic climate.
- Supply remains constrained. In South Snohomish County specifically, the geography of the Puget Sound shoreline, strict zoning, and limited developable land mean that new housing supply has consistently lagged behind demand. That structural imbalance keeps upward pressure on prices over time.
- Inflation raises the cost of everything — including homes. The materials, labor, and land that go into building a home all cost more over time. That reality floors the value of existing homes in a way that most other assets simply don’t have.
What This Means for Buyers in Edmonds and South Snohomish County
The Puget Sound region has historically outperformed the national Case-Shiller average during periods of appreciation — and held up better than most markets during downturns. Edmonds, in particular, has structural advantages that have supported prices through multiple market cycles: the waterfront, the ferry access, the school district, and the limited supply of single-family homes in the most desirable neighborhoods.
None of that means prices will rise in a straight line every single year. Real estate is local, and there can be short-term softening in any market. What the data shows clearly is that the declines, when they happen, have historically been temporary — and that buyers who stayed in their homes through a down period came out ahead.
That’s why the general recommendation holds: buy when it makes sense for your life, and plan to stay for at least five years. That window is typically enough to absorb any short-term volatility and benefit from the longer trend. For buyers in Edmonds and South Snohomish County, that calculus has historically been a favorable one.
In over 40 years of selling homes in this market, Terry has worked with buyers through multiple economic cycles — high interest rates in the early 1980s, the dot-com slowdown, the 2008 crash, and the COVID disruption. The buyers who came out ahead weren’t the ones who timed the market perfectly. They were the ones who bought a home they could afford, in a neighborhood they wanted to be in, and stayed long enough for the market to do its work.
The question isn’t whether prices will go up. Historically, they do. The question is whether right now makes sense for your life and your finances. That’s a conversation worth having.
Frequently Asked Questions
What if I buy now and prices drop?
It’s possible prices could soften in the short term — no one can guarantee the market in any given year. But as the Case-Shiller data shows, declines have historically been temporary, and buyers who held their homes through down periods recovered their value and then some. The key is buying a home you can afford to hold for at least five years, so a short-term dip doesn’t force you to sell at the wrong time.
Is Edmonds more or less risky than other markets?
Edmonds has structural advantages that have supported prices through multiple market cycles — limited supply, strong demand, waterfront access, and proximity to major employment centers. That doesn’t make it immune to downturns, but it does mean the market has historically been more resilient than many comparable Pacific Northwest submarkets.
How long should I plan to stay before buying?
The general rule of thumb is five years — long enough to ride out short-term market fluctuations and benefit from appreciation, and long enough to recoup the transaction costs of buying and selling. If your timeline is shorter than that, renting may make more financial sense depending on your specific situation.
Does this data apply to the Edmonds and South Snohomish County market specifically?
The Case-Shiller data shown is national. The Puget Sound region, and Edmonds in particular, has historically tracked above the national average during appreciation periods. Local data from NWMLS shows Edmonds home prices have risen 4.4% year-over-year as of late 2025, consistent with the long-term pattern shown in the chart above.
Thinking About Buying in Edmonds or South Snohomish County?
If you’d like to talk through what home prices are doing in this market right now, what your timeline looks like, and whether buying makes sense for your specific situation, Terry Vehrs is happy to have that conversation — no pressure, no obligation.
Call or text: 206.799.9500
Terry Vehrs · Windermere Real Estate M2 LLC · Serving Edmonds, Shoreline, Mukilteo & South Snohomish County
Disclaimer: The information contained in this post is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but is not guaranteed. Market data, home values, and other details are subject to change without notice. The Case-Shiller data referenced is national in scope and may not reflect local market conditions. All information should be independently reviewed and verified by the reader. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. For the most current and property-specific information, please consult directly with Terry Vehrs or the appropriate local, county, and state agencies. Terry Vehrs | Windermere Real Estate M2 LLC | Licensed in Washington State.
